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Tick, Tick, Tick: The Biggest Enemy for “HP (HPQ) / Palm (PALM)” is Time

May 15

Written by: Michael Eckhardt
5/15/2010 10:51 PM

There were multiple reasons for HP (HPQ) acquiring struggling smart phone pioneer Palm (PALM) for $1.2 billion a few weeks ago, including mobile computing, the WebOS, and core technology.

One of these reasons was to reinvigorate HP's (HPQ) mobile phone / smart phone offering. It's clear that Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, RIM's (RIMM) Blackberry, and Google's (GOOG) Droid are three of the current winners . . .

in today's smart phone Tornado market for "business customers throughout the US / Western Europe"
with "Tornado" being defined by us at Chasm Institute as a market that's growing at 45% or more (annulized, in units)

The good news is that this Tornado is currently raging - and there will be three, maybe four winners and thrivers (vs. losers) with Nokia (NOK), Sony Ericsson (SNE/ERIC) and others a big question. The bad news for HP (HPQ) / Palm (PALM) is that, based on our work, we know that Tornados in any one geography will last only two to four years . . .

and the smart phone Tornado has already been happening for the past year
so HP (HPC) / Palm (PALM) have, according to our calculations, only one to one and a half years time to make a real impact since the Tornado may not last the maximum four years

So time - not Apple (AAPL), RIM (RIMM) or Google (GOOG) - are the real enemies for HP (HPQ) / Palm (PALM) , , , and speed and time-to-market impact need to be HP (HPQ) / Palm's (PALM) key dashboard indicators for 2010 - 2011. Or else: game over, lights out and opportunity ends.

What do you think: Let me know your thoughts - I'd enjoy hearing from you.

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Michael Eckhardt, Managing Director, Chasm Institute LLC

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8 comments so far...

Re: Tick, Tick, Tick: The Biggest Enemy for “HP (HPQ) / Palm (PALM)” is Time

Michael,

Great article as it gives some framework as to how the timeline looks to be unfolding in the smartphone space. As for the eventual shakeout of winners/ loserers, I take away from your article that it will be a category that never produces a true gorilla, but one that has 2-3 kings?

Is Androids rapid gains in market share these past few quarters, the signal to this eventual outcome?

Aways enjoy reading your posts.

Russell

By Russell on 6/28/2010 8:37 AM

Mobile Device Operating Systems

I do see a gorilla in this space playing out over a longer time-frame within the category of mobile devices not just smartphones.

The mission statement could be ala Microsofts a PC on every desktop, a mobile device in every hand. This should play well with palm:)

There are currently smartphones, ereaders, and tablets - the future may bring other conceptual form factors/combos. I don't see ereaders lasting aa a standalone entity.

Like Oracle and databases, Droid and Symbian should port like crazy to any hardware with agreeable specs.

Symbian is in China and India. Need Russia, Brazil, and how about South Africa - GOAL!

I see Microsoft is advertising its IE8 exclusively on cable and satellite networks.

Look forward to a reply Michael.

By Chris Mesenburg on 6/28/2010 10:40 AM

Nokia Symbian

I didn't realize the control Nokia has with the mercurial repository.

And I see Nokia is coming out with its own OS.

Time-to-Market

Thank you.

By Chris Mesenburg on 7/8/2010 2:56 AM

Hierarchy of Powers

Time-to-market applies to Horizon 2 Bowling Alley Application Solutions becoming a going concern market power.

Therefore focus everyone on hitting objective, market-confirmed milestones in the shortest possible time.

Did I beat the clock.

By Chris Mesenburg on 7/11/2010 6:08 AM

Re: Tick, Tick, Tick: The Biggest Enemy for “HP (HPQ) / Palm (PALM)” is Time

Now I see the tornado is in the complex systems enterprise market.

How about the volume operations consumer market?

Does the winner of BtoB take the cake in viral marketing?

By Chris Mesenburg on 7/11/2010 6:13 AM

Re: Tick, Tick, Tick: The Biggest Enemy for “HP (HPQ) / Palm (PALM)” is Time

Will Symbian be acquired by MSFT, GOOG, Nokia, HTC others? naive

Free works as a vehicle but not in economics of innovation.
Deferred monetization of the customer offer.
Will monetization scale linearly or exponentially.

2.0: B-2-C - The Volume Operations Model

During Ecosystem Collaboration community building chasm crossing scales linearly to exponential during? after? monetization.

Scaling and Phase Transitions in Complex Systems

Can you send me a copy?

Developing emerging market middle management DSS.

By Chris Mesenburg on 7/11/2010 10:35 AM

Mobile World

I've not had the experience of history to allow me to put a future guess as to Kings or Gorilla?

More on that later.

By Chris Mesenburg on 7/13/2010 11:57 AM

Re: Tick, Tick, Tick: The Biggest Enemy for “HP (HPQ) / Palm (PALM)” is Time

From what information I'm coming across, it looks like carriers in developing countries want the revenue from the app download business and this could be challenging to Nokia. As for hardware sales, it looks like they could have a Dell moment in that they are being attacked from both ends(hi:apple,google, lo: MediaTech) with no room in the middle.

Will be watching them closely to see how they react.

Listened to a talk by Geoffrey Moore in London late last year to Nokia . It has some insight about competiive dynamics in the industry and what they should do to leverage their huge position in global phone shipments. A lot has changed sinced then, but its still worth a look. I think its on YouTube.

Russell

By Russell on 7/17/2010 6:54 AM

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