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 | Brett Bonthron, Partner, Chasm Institute LLC |
| Dan Berne, Founder and Principal, Design4Brand |
| Mark Cavender, Founder and Managing Director, Chasm Institute LLC |
| Michael Eckhardt, Managing Director, Chasm Institute LLC |
| Paul Wiefels, Managing Director, The Chasm Group |
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Sep
30
Written by:
Mark Cavender
9/30/2008 11:02 PM
 The recent news of Google's "Android" operating system adds even more questions to the adoption of smartphones. As late as this summer, Apple released its new iPhone 3G, only to have it butchered in the press due to problems with AT&T's "3G" network. As for me, I happily own a Verizon Wireless WorldPhone. Perfect, no. Practical, yes. It always works.
Which leads me to the question of why have smartphones not yet reached the "Tornado" of market demand? I have a hypothesis. There is not yet a gorilla. Because there's no standard operating system. Hardware could also be an issue, given that most operating systems are designed for specific hardware platforms.
If you're talking about hardware, Gartner would tell you Nokia first, with 2Q08 market share of 47.5%, Research in Motion second with 17.4%, then HTC and Sharp both with 4.1%, then Fujitsu eith 3.3%. If we're talking operating systems, Gartner says again Symbian with 57.1%, Research in Motion with 17.4%, MS Windows Mobile with 12.0%, Linux with 7.3%, Mac OS X with 2.8%, and Palm OS with 2.3%. Go here to see the Gartner report.
The international aspect of this is what makes the game interesting. How many Nokia Communicators have you seen in the US? Ever go to Europe? Different story. My Blackberry is considered a novelty when I go to Finland.
Chasm Institute's models and methodology suggest that there is no Tornado because there is no gorilla. Yes, Symbian shows some impressive numbers outside the US. There may be one Tornado in the US with one market leader, and yet another internationally when it comes to the smartphone category. My bet is on Blackberry for the US. Their market share increased from 8.9% in 2Q2007 to 17.4% in 2Q08 vs. the "hot" smartphone (Apple) of 1.0% in 2Q07 to 2.8% in 2Q08. As sexy as the iPhone 3G is, fact is Blackberry has a huge lead in pragmatist adoption. And my prediction is that it will only get better.
My prediction re/ smartphone operating systems: Blackberry becomes the gorilla in the US, and Symbian becomes the gorilla internationally. The Tornado's not here yet, but when it arrives, the gorilla will own a market share much higher than its next nearest competitor. The reason that the smartphone category is not yet in the Tornado: no gorilla has yet to emerge. But just wait.
Copyright ©2008 Mark Cavender
Tags:
11 comments so far...
Re: The SmartPhone Wars: Apple, Google, Blackberry, Microsoft, Symbian, etc.
Nokia said it would introduce the first model using Qualcomm chipset and Nokia's software in the middle of next year.
Nokia eyes North American market
The phones would initially be for the North American market, and would work on third-generation networks and run on the Symbian operating system, the most widely used smartphone software that is currently controlled by Nokia but will eventually be made royalty-free for all users.
http://news.zdnet.co.uk/communications/0,1000000085,39616140,00.htm
By Chris Mesenburg on
2/18/2009 11:49 AM
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Re: The SmartPhone Wars: Apple, Google, Blackberry, Microsoft, Symbian, etc.
The reason that the smartphone category is not yet in the Tornado: no gorilla has yet to emerge.
Fasten your seatbelt for the smartphone tornado, Michael.
Will Blackberry maintain its gorilla status in the U.S. enterprise email niche, Mark?
Can iPhone catch Symbian?
Is Windows Mobile even relevant?
Google's state of the art has a 1GHz processor.
Global market share for smart phone operating systems in 2008 and 2009, according to In-Stat:
Symbian
2008: 56.2 percent. 2009: 44.0 percent
iPhone OS
2008: 6.5 percent. 2009: 19.8 percent
BlackBerry OS
2008: 17.0 percent. 2009: 19.2 percent
Windows Mobile
2008: 13.2 percent. 2009: 9.0 percent
Android
2008: 0.8 percent. 2009: 4.5 percent.
Palm webOS
2008: 0.0 percent. 2009: 0.9 percent
Others
2008: 6.3 percent. 2009: 2.6 percent
Chris
By Chris Mesenburg on
2/12/2010 12:20 AM
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Re: The SmartPhone Wars: Apple, Google, Blackberry, Microsoft, Symbian, etc.
I still say that, as of this point in time, Blackberry is the leader in the corporate world and IPhone is the leader in the consumer world. Wouldn't it be interesting if Apple acquired Blackberry? To me, that's the perfect acquisition. Apple's user interface, Blackberry's back-end infrastructure for corporate email.
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Re: The SmartPhone Wars: Apple, Google, Blackberry, Microsoft, Symbian, etc.
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Re: The SmartPhone Wars: Apple, Google, Blackberry, Microsoft, Symbian, etc.
Don't know how intense an effort Apple would have to make to integrate their layer with BBs.
Nokia said it would introduce the first model using Qualcomm chipset and Nokia's software in the middle of next year.
The phones would initially be for the North American market, and would work on third-generation networks and run on the Symbian operating system
I'm an ideas.symbian.org generator. Follow blog and twitter. Have not come across new of future US presence.
Some members of Symbian seem to think they will be folded back into Nokia in future, even with Nokia's entry into mobile OS with meego.
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